Compounding, knowing who to promote, and the radiation redux
Decision Balance Newsletter | 4/29/2025
Key Insight
Anything above zero compounds. For investors facing a challenging performance period consider taking small wins versus trying to earn back losses in high risk trades all at once. In terms of habits, pick something you want to improve and then identify the smallest increment of change you can make and do it every week or if possible every day. Watch the power of compounding. If you want more on this subject check out the Kobe Method or (re)read Atomic Habits.
A question to ask yourself
When do you know someone is ready for a promotion? According to LonePine co-CIO, Kelly Granat, it becomes obvious when the “junior” person has the confidence to intelligently disagree with you. They can express their own point of view with conviction, clarity of thought, and a deep drive to own the outcome. If they can do this again and again it is time to promote them or you will lose them.
Reading, podcast thoughts
Imperfection is the natural state of life. Seek mastery, work on improvement, be adaptable, but let go of perfection. Ty Cobb has the highest career batting average at .366, and a typical US state diving champion scores 375 in total which equates to 6.5s on basic dives and 5.5 on complex ones (not a perfect 10). Know the game you are playing and target “effort to win” versus being perfect. Roger Federer’s Dartmouth speech summarizes best how to win when it matters and let go of all the small losses.
All In podcast, co host David Friedberg provides a simple idea to fund social security. Did you know that all social security tax money is invested in US treasuries which average 4.8% returns annually compared to the S&P 500 of 11%. Imagine if your social security retirement account was invested in a balanced portfolio of stocks & bonds or simply the S&P 500? Of course there is greater risk for the higher return. If all inflows into social security from 1971 to today were invested in the S&P 500 the total balance today would be $15 Trillion. Instead, the actual value is $2.7 Trillion and it will run out of money by 2032 with no changes.
Under periods of extreme stress or in the daily busyness of life we can lose sight of what is important or how to solve a problem. You might need to create your razor’s edge rule - a single unwavering principle that helps you course correct with no hesitation when you lose your direction and sense of priorities. The crew of Apollo 13 and Netflix co-founder Marc Randolph each had their own way distilling complexity and using a clear decision making framework to get them “home.”
Health
A recent study indicated that CT scans might be the cause of up to 5% of cancers. That said, experts suggest that many “high value” CT scans remain an essential diagnostic tool despite the risks. Furthermore, many countries are also using low dose radiation as a treatment to lingering orthopedic injuries like arthritis / tendonitis. US based with Radiation Oncologist, Dr. Sanjay Mehta, is using very low dose radiation with similar or better anti inflammatory effect as a cortisone shot while being noninvasive (@1h18 minutes into podcast) . Treatment is 3 times per week for two weeks with 60-80% success rate and a second treatment after 12 weeks which can deliver 90% success and little to no recurrence. Most of the data supporting this comes out of Germany with fairly robust clinical data sets. There is a lot of pushback as it might take revenue away from orthopedic surgeons or podiatrists but it is approved by Medicare.
Welcome to the DecisionBalance newsletter where I share insights, questions, and reading recommendations. I coach asset managers, artists, and start-up founder/CEOs to set goals, improve performance, and find deeper meaning in their work.
